Article: Pot Odds and Implied Odds
Pot Odds and Implied Odds
by Adam Schiavone
Most players in this info accessible age of poker know the basic odds of the game - pair vs. pair, overcards vs. pairs, and dominated hands. Common draws like gutshot straights and four flushes are also fairly widespread knowledge when it comes to the math of the game. However, a common misconception in all forms of Hold Em is that of pot and implied odds. Oft times at home or club games, you will hear these terms haphazardly thrown around, and in most cases, they're used incorrectly. One only need view a frequent example of someone calling a small raise out of the blinds with 9-4 offsuit, claiming, "I've got to call with any two here!".
The most basic definition of Pot Odds is the amount of money currently in the pot versus the amount you will need to be calling. This number is weighed versus your estimated odds of making your hand. If your chance of hitting your hand is significantly higher than the ratio of the pot to your call, then you should continue to be involved. Example - you hold the As6s on a board of 10s-5c-4s-9d. You're on the nut flush draw, with 9 spades out of 46 unseen cards, or a 19.6% chance of hitting your flush (roughly 1 in 5). The bet to you is $20, with $200 in the pot. This ratio is currently 10-to-1, which is double what you'd need to make the call (your Ace overcard may or may not be an out, which might improve you to 12 outs!). Easy call! However, if the bet facing you is $150, you'd need to call $150 into a $350 pot .... you are not getting the correct price to chase.
Pot odds are a strict mathematical assessment of what price the current total of the pot is laying you to make a call, not a measure of having to call because it's a "big pot". In a $1-$2 NL cash game, you don't call a raise to $7 out of the SB with Q-2 offsuit simply because there's $40 in there and it's a measly $6 to call! Think about this logic for a minute, how often can you really make a winning hand with this holding?
Implied odds are a different story. They are tied in to pot odds, but could be considered something of a "future" calculation. Loosely defined, Implied Odds are odds you're getting after the assumed total betting for the remainder of the hand. When deciding to call a bet on the flop or turn, assess how much you may have to invest in order to get to a showdown. If your opponent bets into you on the flop, and your pot odds dictate that you're about even when it comes to calling, keep in mind that you may be bet into again, meaning it will cost you more than just the flop bet to continue to the river. Say you're playing $5/$10 Limit and you have a four flush on the flop. Opponent bets into you heads up. The pot is $50 at this point. To hit a flush on the turn, barring addition pair/overcard outs, is 19.1% (1 in 5). You have to call this $5 bet vs a $50 pot, 10-1, same as above. Odds are in your favor, but you must consider that this guy's going to bet into you on the turn and river also. That's the $5 plus two more $10 bets. It may cost you $25 by the end of the hand.
This measure can also be used to determine how much you think you can WIN during the course of a hand. In the above scenario, depending on your read on your opponent, it may be worth calling because you feel that should you make your hand, you can still get bets out of him. You can also assess this in deciding whether or not to call preflop. Suited connectors and low pairs go way up in value when stacks are deeper, due to the chances of your possibly winning a large pot if you do make your hand - you may be close to 8-1 against to flop your set with 3-3, but if you think you can stack your opponent for $200 on a $15 call preflop, it may be well worth it! the opposite side of this coin would be a heads up situation where your opponent makes a preflop bet of $12, despite having an additional $50 behind. 7-6 suited here lacks value, as you will not win enough when you make your hand to justify calling with connectors that will miss the flop 80% of the time!
These are all factors that need to be considered when making calls. They are an important guide and factor in assessing your risk/reward value in seeing the next card. Pot Odds and Implied Odds are not an absolute, but are a key element of this game. Play your cards right, know your math, and you'll be dragging pots in no time!
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