BlackJack Strategy
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Statistics
Statisticians and mathematicians became interested in the game in the 1950s and calculated a strategy for eliminating much of the casino house advantage. These theories were further developed in the 60s and 70s when computers became more available. The researchers were able to simulate millions of hands of blackjack and developed what is now know as blackjack basic strategy.
The basic strategy is based on this statistical analysis and the fact that the player may choose to double down or split when favourable and gets paid 3:2 for blackjack. Whereas the dealer must adhere to the rules and stand on 17 and above, cannot double down or split and only gets paid 1:1 for blackjack.
For instance it is a statistical fact that the dealer has more than a 35% chance of busting if their face up card is a 3, 4, 5 or 6. So, in this case, if you have a total of 13 to 16, you should stand as the dealer has a good chance of busting, as do you, but you can choose not to hit whereas the dealer must hit.
However if the dealer has a 7, 8, 9, 10 or Ace, you should take another card as there is a high probability that the dealer's face down card is a 10, and their hand will beat you.
Variables
There are certain variables that alter the casino's percentage advantage one way or the other and also have an effect on the correct basic strategy that should be used:
Number of decks used .
If the dealer has to stand on a soft 17 (Ace and 6).
If splitting pairs is allowed, and how many times.
If doubling down is allowed and whether allowed after splitting.
If surrender is allowed.
Winning at Blackjack is part skill and part luck. A player using a good blackjack basic strategy can reduce the online casinos advantage to a minimum and, under certain very favorable conditions, can gain an edge over the casino.
The Blackjack Basic Strategy Rules
There are a basic set of rules that apply to all blackjack games:
General
Always stand on 17 or better.
Always hit on 12-16 when dealer shows 7 or higher.
Always hit on 8 or less.
Doubling Down
Always double down on 11.
Double down on 10 when dealer shows 9 or lower.
Double down on 9 when dealer shows 6 or lower.
Soft Hands
Always stand on soft 19 and 20.
Always double down on soft 13-18 when dealer shows 4,5, or 6.
Splits
Always split aces and 8's.
Never split 10-face cards and never split 5's.
Always split 3's and 2's when the dealer shows 4,5,6, or 7.
Further Explanation
Why Split
Most casinos allow you to split two initial cards of the same value and play them as two separate hands while staking an equal amount to the first bet on the new hand.
You never split two 5s or two 10s. If you have two 5s you have a total of ten and a very good chance of drawing a ten to make a strong hand of 20. If you have two 10s you are already there.
However, if you have two Aces or 8s you should usually split them. The two aces give you two chances for Blackjack, (although it generally only pays evens on split hands) and two 8s gives you two chances to make 18 instead of the rather poor 16 that you have.
The other splitting decisions depend more on the dealer's face up card.
Why Double Down
This enables you to double your bet when the odds of you winning are better than the dealer's.
Casino rules do vary, but you would normally only want to double down when you have a hand worth 9, 10 or 11 and the dealer's face up card is less than your total. Also you may double down on a soft 13 to 17 if the dealer has a poor face up card.
Surrender
Surrender is allowed at some casinos and allows the player to surrender their hand and lose half their stake. This would usually only be taken if the player had a 15 or 16 against a dealer 9,10 or Ace.
Insurance
Insurance allows the player to bet that the dealer has blackjack. This pays 2:1. This bet is not generally used in blackjack basic strategy and should be ignored.
Card Counting
Card counting was introduced in the 1960s and 70s when it was discovered that a deck with an above average number of 10 value cards and aces remaining favoured the player and a deck with an above average number of low cards, 2-6, favoured the dealer.
The general idea is to keep a basic count of whether there are more or less 10 value and aces or low cards 2-6 remaining in the deck. One of the most popular methods is to start with a newly shuffled deck and subtract 1 for each 10 or ace add 1 for each 2-6 and ignore 7-9s. A full pack of cards totals zero.
The card counter will still stick to the basic strategy but will raise and lower their stakes depending on wether the remaining cards in the shoe are favouring them or not.
We do not go into a great deal of detail here as card counting at the online casinos is not really possible as most casinos shuffle the decks after every hand.
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