Poker Strategy: Outs & Odds
Figuring Outs
To calculate your hand odds, you first need to know how many outs your hand has. Outs are defined as a card in the deck that help you make your hand. So if you hold AK of spades and have two spades on the flop, that leaves 9 more spades in the deck, since there are 13 cards of each suit. This means you have 9 outs to complete your flush - but not necessarily the best hand! Usually you want your outs to count toward a nut draw, but this is not always possible.
You might be wondering "What if somebody else is holding a spade, doesn't this decreas my outs?" The answer is yes and no. If you know for sure that someone else is holding a spade, then you will have to count that against your total odds. However, in most situations when you do not know what your opponents hold, you can only do calculations with the knowledge that is available to you. That knowledge is your pocket cards and the cards on the table. So, in essence, you are doing the calculations as if you were the only person at the table, which in case, there are 9 spades left in the deck.
When calculating outs, it's also important not to overcount your odds. An example would be a flush draw in addition to an open straight draw.
Example: You hold 9h 8h and the flop come 7h 10h As. You have and open end straight flush draw. There are 9 outs to a flush and 8 outs to a straight. So do you have 17 outs? The answere is no you have 15. With 17 outs you would be counting some of the outs twice, like the 6h and the Jh.
In addition to this, sometimes an out for you really isn't a true out. An example would be chasing an open ended straight draw when two of another suit are on the table. In this regard, where you would normally have 8 total outs to hit your straight, 2 of those outs will result in three to a suit on the table. This makes a possible flush for your opponents. As a result, you really only have 6 outs for a nut straight draw.
Odds Calculations
Determining the odds against improving your hand on the next card is found by dividing the total number of cards that will not help you by the number of outs that will. For example, you hold a 7 and 6 of clubs and the flop is showing an Ace of hearts, a ten of clubs, and a 5 of clubs. At this point, there are 47 cards that you can't see. There are 9 outs that will improve your hand to a flush and 38 cards that will not help you at all. So, 38 divided by 9 gives you a 4.2 to 1 odds against improving to a flush.
The probability of improving your hand to a flush is determined by dividing the number of outs - in this case 9 - by 38. In this case, the probability is approximately 24%.
The Rule of Four-Two
The rule of four-two is an easier way to figure the odds for any situation where you know your outs. It is not completely accurate but it will give you a quick "ballpark" figure of your chances for making a hand. Here is how it works.
With two cards to come after the flop you multiply your number of outs by four. With one card to come after the turn, you multiply your number of outs by two. This will give you a quick figure to work with. If you have a four-card flush after the flop you have nine outs. With two cards to come, you multiply the nine by four and you get 36 percent chance of making the flush. The chart shows the true odds at 35 percent. With one card to come you multiply nine by two and get 18 percent. The chart shows that the true figure is 19.6. It is not completely accurate but it is pretty close, and it is an easy calculation to do in your head.
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